What is PWIN?
PWIN is probability of win: an estimate of your chance of taking an award if you bid it. Price to win is the separate estimate of what you would have to charge to be competitive. PWIN decides whether to bid; price to win decides what to put in the price volume.
What actually moves PWIN
Incumbency and how contested prior awards were. Relevant past performance you can cite. Eligibility and set-aside fit. Relationship and prior work with the buying office. Whether the requirement matches your real capability or a stretched version of it. A PWIN with no visible factors is a number somebody made up.
How to use it honestly
PWIN is for allocating bid and proposal money across a pipeline, not for reassurance. A portfolio of 60% PWINs that you bid properly beats a portfolio of 25% PWINs that you all bid badly. If every opportunity scores 70%, the model is broken.
Price to win is a different question
It comes from what the government has actually paid on comparable awards, escalation since, the wage determination if service contract labour applies, and the competitive set. Your cost is an input to whether you can bid at that number — it is not the number.
Where the public evidence is
Prior award prices, offer counts and awardees are in the federal award record. Two single-offer awards in a row at rising prices tells you something very different from six offers at a flat price, and both are visible before you decide.
In the product
PWIN with its factors, per solicitation
GovDealAI is $350/month for 10 proposal generations, with a 7-day trial and no card.
Questions people ask about this
Stop reading about it and run it on a live solicitation.
$350/month, 10 proposal generations. The trial reads, scores and drafts everything — submitting and exporting are the paid part.